obama's checkmate map. if he wins those three upper midwest states, if romney sweeps the board, you see it right there, president obama ekes out a four-point win which is why governor romney spending so much time on wisconsin. if you flip it around, even if it then president obama is able to hold on to one of the batt battleground likes nevada, romney's able to win 271-267. ohio becomes the path to. presidency for romney. he's further behind in wisconsin. >> no republican has been elected president without carrying the state of ohio since the republican party was founded in 1852. i would say thatonstitutes a pattern. and the reality is, even though it's arit metically possible for him to win, it's hard. it's arit metically possible. the truth is, what's happening in ohio, my view is, the in-state polls are a lagging indicator. today in the real clear politics, obama is ahead of two. well within the margin of error. in the three most recent polls, they're effectively tied. let me tell where you where we're h